But as said Napoleon inconceivable is not Russian

A Specter is haunting the Russia and it is called "2008". In the presidential election of that year, there is little political or economic events that will be linked to the struggle for the succession of Vladimir Putin. Already, the entrepreneurs in the country hold their breath... and their plans. As noted by Al Breach, analyst firm UBS in Moscow, some bosses "now see that investment represents a potential gift to the future owner". As oligarchs and ex-KGB men at the head of the main companies of the countries may fear to be expropriated or imprisoned if prevails in 2008 a clan in the Kremlin to which they have the misfortune of not belonging. Moreover, the authority of Vladimir Putin was not enough to prevent the caciques of the regime to engage in a fierce game of bonneteau with major oil companies, nuclear, weapons, mines or mechanical. A great reinforcement of "administrative resources", delicious euphemism designating the use of the tax investigation or judicial to eliminate a rival with friends insufficiently high placed.

This poisonous atmosphere noted the vacuity of the commitment made by Vladimir Putin, from his election in 2000, to enforce the "dictatorship of law". Emptiness that also demonstrates, through the recent murder of Anna Politovskaya, the impunity with which removes the trouble-makers in Russia; less known that their Moscow colleague, half a dozen journalists disappear or are killed each year. More indicative of the intensity of the ongoing struggles, however, is the recent assassination of the Vice-Governor of the Central Bank, Andrei Kozlov, because he was part of the President himself protected...

Course, the foreign policy line is not spared by this confrontation between the clan of the "hard" of the FSB (ex - KGB), grouped around the pattern of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, one of the "pragmatic", including the Chief Sergei Ivanov, the Minister of defence, and "technocrats", including the champion Dimitri Medvedev, Gazprom boss. This last clan is supposed to be pro-Western on the basis that Gazprom has its key markets in Europe and grows its pawns in Germany.

Under the leadership of a skilled Putin to play of balance between rivals, foreign policy resulting follows however a clear doctrine. That of a "counter-attack" a country which has been in recent years across on the defensive, seeing its sphere of influence to reduce be shrinking, with now for only allies in the former USSR, the Armenia and the Belarus. "Pieces" strategic on the chessboard as Yugoslavia, the Azerbaijan, the Kazakhstan, which continental Europe and the United States. And the proliferation in Ukraine, Georgia, orange, pink or yellow lemon revolutions Kyrgyzstan aided by Western NGOs. While Washington was invading the Afghanistan and the Iraq or asked for sanctions against the Iran, client of the Russia. This may explain some of the current paranoia, said Alexander Moukhine, the Centre for political information to Moscow. And the crude strategy of intimidation followed by Russian officials who have never believed in the concept of "soft power" and who seem to believe it void disastrous image of a good "spin doctor" cannot make us forget. Therefore, the Russia believes mater Moldova phytosanitary pretext banning the import of its wines (passing yet safely tests of the Union). And, for only jailed two days five Russian officers suspected of espionage, the Georgia has been banned for two months of any relationship banking, postal, rail with the Russia. All on a background of televised propaganda xenophobic and chauvinist and racist incidents repeatedly against the "Caucasian".

All of this, these are all signs of a social malaise and a real discontent despite strong economic growth, the payment in time and hour of wages and renewed national pride. Thus, if Vladimir Poutine enjoys a stratospheric popularity, we know less, according to a survey, only 17 of Russians believe that he "succeeded", probably because an always apparent corruption, even in progress, and of rundown social services. The scheme is therefore concerned because he knows not having no popular candidate 2008. Indeed, it will be able to manipulate the vote if adventure its candidate, Dimitri Medvedev, Sergey Ivanov or a "third man", for example Vladimir Iakounine, the railway boss and long-time friend date of Vladimir Putin, was in danger. And the Kremlin pretended to fear an "orange revolution" that as pretext for better control over NGOs and media. But the concern is palpable in the Kremlin, as evidenced by the creation in standards of a new political party, just Russia, to fix the protest vote.

Faced with such uncertainties, it would be logical that the sole guarantor of a peace army between oligarchs or clan of the State apparatus, and therefore more generally of the stability of the country, namely Vladimir Putin himself, represents in 2008. It would be this, a small amendment to the Constitution, that the President has however excluded, and that followers of this uncertain science is the kremlinologie most take too seriously. Indeed, such manipulation impair devastating way the credibility of Vladimir Putin during his meetings with heads of State elected by the regular. Another scenario, Vladimir Putin might keep real power by becoming President and CEO of a "super-holding" of all the big national companies, richer, and thus more powerful than the State itself. But it would not at all in the tradition of the country, that the tsar be the tenant of the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin is also well placed to know that any CEO can be landed in a single police raid. A scenario light to convert to the position of Prime Minister is not in the spirit of the country. On the other hand, one can imagine the election of a quite lunatic successor, who would resign after one or two years for health reasons, for the benefit of... Vladimir Poutine, that nothing did prohibit to appear in 2010. A hypothesis taken seriously by Yevgeny Volk of the Heritage Foundation, but less inventive than to absorb the Belarus, which would require the establishment of a Federal Constitution and therefore... the creation of a new position President Vladimir Putin. Should just bail out a country of 10 million people remained entirely in the era Brezhnev. Inconceivable annexation of our days. But, as said Napoleon, inconceivable is not Russian.