Do you have a preferred areaEmeric Preaubert

In this triple crisis, financial, real estate and now economic investors discover their worst enemy: themselves. Indeed, they must be careful not to let minutae by fear. Fear prevents to take back to the events. It encourages to focus on the fateful choices. While on the other hand, the self-control teaches patience. However, over time, the latter eventually porter fruit. It will allow to get out of the doldrums by the top. November 20, while the CAC 40 was preparing once again to prick of the nose, four guests at the "Les Echos" HSBC Private Bank circle in were in any case convinced. It was Isaac Chebar, European Manager in DNCA; Laurent Dobler, head of European actions in Comgest; Emeric Preaubert, founding partner and Manager Sycomore Asset Management and Marc Renaud, President and CEO of Tangerine management.

How do you live these historic days

Marc Renaud. That say you original We are in a systemic crisis, and we are trying to find a way to manage. Actions are the macroeconomic situation of the eighteen months because unfortunately, it seems accepted that we are on the eve of a global recession with a market that manages a total lack of liquidity.

Laurent Dobler. We started by a banking crisis which came as a storm in beautiful full-time. Until recently, companies said us that everything was fine. And this is now that bankruptcies are narrowly avoided! An if abruptly stopping is unprecedented. It is one of the reasons for which the market reacts so poorly.

However, a few positive elements remain. With the fall in raw material prices, purchasing power will increase, but it is not easy to really celebrate a deflationary environment. Moreover, emerging economies have much benefited from the development of capitalism at the global level by the American overconsumption. In these countries, the process continues to grow. These savings are therefore less slow than the developed economies. However, consumption cumulative of the India and China matches of England! Therefore one should not expect miracles.

Isaac Chebar. More than ten years, we were accustomed to a debt perpetual, accompanied by low inflation and low interest rates. Globalization was that it was possible to create money without risking inflationary pressure to be. We have given to the consumer that illusion could perpetually renegotiate its debt. But we are now called back to the reason.

However, I do not think that this crisis is comparable to the great depression of 1929. The authorities provide liquidity, Governments support savings. We cannot say that it is a crisis of a new type. Was already there for this type. They did the damage over the years. But banking systems in bankruptcy to are identified, including in some Nordic countries or in emerging countries. The out of the crisis is made by the relaunch of the States, even if it cost dearly in terms of deficit and growth. It remains to know how long it will take. The Japan took twenty years to get out, but I do not think that Europe will be as long.

Emeric Preaubert. It is the first time that we have to deal simultaneously with economic, financial and real estate crisis. The three will not be resolved immediately, so we are moving a little into the unknown and the situation is very serious. But long-term growth engines still exist. I do not want to be too optimistic, but our view is that we will get out of this crisis. There are two real differences with that of 1929. The first is that the monetary authorities have learned a lot since then and react more at all in the same way. The second is that Governments have understood the risk of yield to the protectionist temptation that accentuates the crises.

Do you have a preferred area

Emeric Preaubert. The oil! Oil values are not expensive given low PER and reserves. The real issue is the ability to maintain these profits; We always hear the same argument that taxation will amputate the profits. But this is not recent: Total pay 85 of its taxes from France. The real question is, however, the price of oil. With respect to the oil prices I don't forecast at six months, but it seems likely that the next 10 to 20 years, the barrel remains expensive, because the world may not significantly reduce oil consumption.

Marc Renaud. Like my colleague, I really want to buy all the values in the petroleum sector. There is a real physical shortage. I agree completely with the previous discussion, but I do not want to make oil prices forecast: variation in consumption of 0.7 is enough to dive courses of 60. Geophysics declined by 75 in my opinion because it was in the portfolio invested in raw materials. It has thus suffered the withdrawals of savers because of its lack of liquidity, unlike Shell or Total. Perhaps I am wrong to play this value, because I do not consider myself as a specialist in oil. But I think, I do not understand that the oil companies do not invest in the exploration and production in the years to come. Geophysics is the technological leader and just buy its competitors. For me, this demonstrates this period of great stock opportunities; This is typically a value that will make me win much.

Isaac Chebar. I am a little bother, because I think the same thing. Questions to ask are:

What industry can now invest 25 to 35 billion dollars a year This is the amount spent by the oil companies.

What industry is valued in the amount of its reserves This is the case for Total, as explained by Marc Renaud.

What industry can start a project will result in ten years while perpetuating the annuity of this project for ten years with a greater than 25 profitability In natural gas, Shell has started projects ten years ago that today have a profitability by 40.

In addition, the sector offers a yield of 6 per year. I do not logic, therefore, in course decreases.

Laurent Dobler. For us, oil is an undifferentiated raw with a supply and demand. Short term variation of the course are unpredictable. But in the long term, I agree with the above analysis despite the recession, less strong than expected consumption and energy savings programs.

The fact that the cost of financing is no had forced savings at unsustainable growth rates for the supply of raw materials. But this is of course not only that which stopped growth. Long term, I think there are certainly things to discover, including alternatives to oil that should happen fairly quickly, otherwise the lack of oil leads to a severe recession. It is interesting to note that the petroleum will be the winners of this evolution.