He must go back to the 1980s to find high figures

It is a paradox, but it is only apparent. In the fourth quarter of 2001, or the three months following the attacks on the World Trade Center, the United States out with growth, after a short period of recession. What confuse experts, who, in the aftermath of September 11, predicted a fall in consumption and the slowdown in the economy. "The attacks, on the contrary, coincided with a way out of recession." "But it was discovered after coup, after the revision of the statistics," said Evariste Lefeuvre, Economist at Ixis CIB.

The summer 2001, the US economy was weakened by the collapse of the dot-com bubble a year earlier and an excess supply of goods and services. And in the spring of 2002, the stock market collapsed after the financial scandals WorldCom and Enron. "This context was created in the country a sense of"preference for the present", strongly enhanced by the trauma of the attacks of September 11," continues Evariste Lefeuvre. The result: companies have préfèré pay dividends preferred shareholders, households consume more and save less, causing a strong recovery at the end of 2001.

It is implemented by the Bush administration a very expansionist budgetary policy and a series of emergency measures, including a massive tax cut plan, which will allow to consolidate activity is restarted. Tax reductions decided upon, it is true, before the attacks, since they were part of the election of the new President, but which have been amplified in 2003 and extended to dividends and capital gains.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve massively decreased rent money, reducing its main interest rate (already increased from 6.5 to 2.5 between December 2000 and October 2001) 1 only mid-2003, its lowest level since the 1960s. This monetary easing combined with the tax relief offered many households a leverage effect to substitute for a financial wealth (evaporated with the collapse of the dot-com bubble) new real estate wealth and interesting.

A "windfall effect."

But the most spectacular consequence of September 11 on the US economy is the impressive mobilization of public money: strengthening security at ports and airports and other facilities; very strong increase in the defence budget. Thus, military spending rose from 3 of GDP in 2000 to 4 in 2005! With undeniable effects on growth. "The Government did what was needed to revive the economy, said Jean-Marc Lucas, an economist at BNP Paribas. In 2002, the public expenditure was the essential component of the growth of GDP, with a contribution of 0.8 point, either half of the total. He must go back to the 1980s to find high figures.

Thus, the United States experienced a period of relatively strong growth of the order of 3.5 on average during the years that followed the attacks. Evariste Lefeuvre concludes: "In view of the trauma of the attacks, the persistence of external threats and the recession, the US economy was beautiful resistance capacity."

Not question as of plaiting Kudos to the Bush administration, which, believe, especially benefited from a "windfall effect." Some measures, such as the accelerated depreciation of capital, which helped to support investment, were also taken a little later (in 2003). On the other hand, the criticisms of the tax cuts did not fail, the American trade unionist Thomas Palley denouncing 2002 "a progressive tax redistribution in favour of the most affluent".

Economists have especially emphasized the role played by the Fed in the recovery of the economy. But, today, many people who denounce the consequences of its very accommodative monetary policy on the real estate market and the risks of collapse of a new bubble.