In a year Dassault Aviation has lost to 3

First into the crisis, business aviation will probably be the last to leave. Despite signs of improvement, aircraft manufacturers and operators meeting today in Geneva for the Ebace show expect a difficult year and see no return to the level of before the crisis of here in a year or two.

"The first quarter was disappointing and nobody can say how long the crisis will last, recognizes Charles Edelstenne, CEO of Dassault Aviation." It is clear some signs of recovery - cancellations has declined considerably, sold some aircraft and departed on the market of the opportunity, but nothing really significant.

"It follows closely the evolution of the market opportunity, says his side Jean Rosanvallon, the pattern of Dassault Falcon." Two thirds of our potential customers have to sell their aircraft before being able to order a new. "Or if the sales are distributed on the market, prices there have gone so low - of the order of 30 to 50 of reduction according to models - that some buyers away from the new aircraft.

Moreover, the U.S. market, by far the world's first, remains behind. "70 of our sales in the first quarter were outside the United States", said Jean Rosanvallon.

The magnitude of the decline experienced since the fall of 2008, it is true, without precedent. If the whole of the European air traffic decreased by 6.6 in the number of flights in 2009, business aviation has accused a decline of 15, after a first drop of 20 end of 2008, according to Eurocontrol.

The high resistance

The crisis has mainly had a devastating impact on aircraft purchases. According to an estimate of the firm Teal Group, business aircraft deliveries have thus declined from 24 in value in 2009. And, for the second year, all aircraft manufacturers have recorded more cancellations than new orders. In a year, Dassault Aviation has lost to 3.8 billion of orders, from 489 units in book to end 2008-249 end 2009. Canadian rival Bombardier recorded 186 cancellations. Particularly affected the Cessna American would have lost 250 orders in 2009.

Only consolation for Dassault, the high-end market, on which he claims a leading position, has better stood. Despite the cancellations, his new flagship, the Falcon 7 X, continues to find licensee. The 75eexemplaire of this certified fleet in 2007 will be delivered today in Geneva and 120 others are still to be delivered. "The main driver of our activity is the globalization of the economy, for which long range as the Falcon 2000 and the 7 X are the most reported", said Charles Edelstenne.

At the other end of the spectrum, the most economical devices seem also more escape, as the TBM 850 turboprop of Socata French. The former subsidiary of EADS purchased by Daher provides 40 deliveries in 2010, against 36 in 2009. At the time, Dassault Aviation, which had been the only one to increase its deliveries last year, hope still further this year, with a continued goal of about 80 aircraft, against 77 in 2009 and 72 in 2008. Its CEO says same "fairly optimistic" on the chances to finish the year with a net balance of commands positive. "

If the first quarter still completed on a negative net balance of four cancellations, "the following quarters should be positive", he said. The decline of the euro against the dollar contributed to strengthen the competitiveness of European products.