including the small and mediumsized values

The markets want to mount. They have demonstrated yesterday relative indifference to some bad news. Thus, they should not stop in so good way, at a year-end period often favourable, according to widespread beliefs among operators. This phenomenon of seasonal increase of shares (1), centered around Christmas and the day of the year, is particularly strong compared with other abnormalities (end of month...). It is observed on 10 major markets (USA, Great Britain, France...), including the small and medium-sized values. Seasonal stock abnormalities may disappear or reappear with the evolution of markets and their learning. Indeed, beliefs, same false, can be validated on the market if that a sufficient number of stakeholders believe or do seem to join.

Yesterday, the places were already in a festive mood. Thus, the CAC 40 of the French stock market index closed up 0.68, to 3.898,38 points, on an annual record (read below). It does not mean much in this quite particular year end context (limited transaction volume), but to measure all the way since one year. Because at the time, stock markets were at the bottom of the abyss, in full depression. Activity fell, particularly across the Atlantic. As in echo this dark - and not so long ago - period, the growth of the gross domestic product in the United States in the third quarter has been significantly reviewed down to 2.2 annual rate, compared with 2.8 a month earlier. It has even divided by 2 since the first estimate, partly on an increase of 3.5. A reminder in good and due form that the crisis of the century is not over, despite signs of resumption of real estate. Indeed, at the same time, the market learned that sales of housing in the United States increased by 7.4 in November and for the seventh time in eight months, according to figures released by the National Association of estate agents.

Inevitable rebound

What to allow the king dollar continue its ascent against the euro, which assigned 0.37 against the greenback, 1,4259 dollar. The European currency, in small form lately, was also down against the pound and the yen. At issue in particular, the difficulties of the Greece. Thus, after & Standard Poor's and Fitch, it was the turn of the rating agency Moody's lowered the mark of the country, but without this time concern with similar decisions taken by its counterparts. Moody's announced yesterday have lowered the obligations of the Greek State from A1 to A2, because of the uncertainties in the risk of the country's long-term solvency. Greek debt, that of some are beginning to find new attractive, recorded a relaxation of its yield. Thus, the performance of the 10-year bonds retreated from 5.94 to 5.72.

In contrast, other euro-zone Government bonds were folds, the good Awards Countdown. The reasons are plenty unreliability of State debt. The performance of the French OAT to 10 years of reference thus rose 3.44 to 3.50, while that of his counterpart of the German Bund progressed by 7 basis points, 3,26. Across the Atlantic, the performance of the T-bonds to 10 years awarded a gain of 6 core, 3.73 points early in the day.

The market is satisfied, the long rates rise is in its infancy. This movement will take time, without necessarily causing disasters, but it is inevitable, as a result of the explosion of public debt and deficit. In this regard, a European institutional investor on two provides a stable long-term rates in a year (September 2010) and a third higher, according to a survey conducted by JP Morgan Asset Management. The latter had questioned nearly 200 European institutional investors (including 70 of pension funds) in early September. Longer term (3 to 5 years), this is six or seven investors on ten who anticipate a rise in long rates.