7 in IledeFrance in early in the year to 6

Battered by the crisis financial and economic, real estate business sector suffers from almost two years of the settlement business and suppression of tertiary employment which reduces the need for surfaces of the companies. The Insee - pole job announcement for Ile-de-France 115.000 positions destroyed in 2009 and anticipates 65,000 new deletions for 2010 affecting volumes placed rental square metres this year that would establish between 1.6 and 1.8 million against 2.3 million in 2008. The end of the recession that is not synonymous with rental transactions resumed and the situation is too uncertain for professional real estate to expect a quick recovery.

So far, offices rental transaction level was maintained at an appropriate level, "the applications expressed being primarily motivated by grouping strategies and research of rent savings", says Thierry Laroue-bridge, Vice President of BNP Paribas Real Estate. Immostat figures are 860,000 m2loués in the first half, while accusing a decrease of 27 over the same period of 2008 (1.182.000 m2). The net balance between surfaces "consumed" by companies and those that they release, according to the, Institute of real estate and land saving (IEIF) would exceed 500,000 m2. This slowing of the movement of companies mechanically increase the vacancy rate, past of 5.7 in Ile-de-France in early in the year to 6.7 in this school and which could be 8 in late December. "We are still far from the rates achieved during the crisis of the 1990s where he had crossed the bar of 10 in 1993.", reminiscent of the market players.Evidence of a high reactivity of the market, there is an adjustment of the new offer with a housing starts fell below 1 million meters square in the second quarter 2009.

Investment fell sharply. The figures evidenced: valued at EUR 1.3 billion in the Ile-de-France during the first half of 2009, compared to 4.8 billion in the first half of 2008, these investments do not exceed EUR 4 billion for the whole of the year 2009, against 9 billion last year. Total of France real estate investments was EUR 30 billion in 2007, 15 in 2008 and it would subscribe between 6 and 7 billion this year.

Fall severe placed volumes

These severe declines are observed everywhere in Europe. Cushman & Wakefield posts 23.6 billion euros invested in 32 countries in the first half, against 68.8 billion during the same period a year earlier, the United Kingdom concentrating this year the greater part. Our British neighbours should capture 20 billion euros of investments in 2009, according to Olivier Gérard, President of the real estate business for the France, or a decline of "only" 25 from 2008, already sharp down from 2007. On London's values, "they were melted by 45 between June 2007 and June 2009", said Christian de Kérangal, Executive Director of IPD France and southern Europe, however note a slight recovery last August, the first twenty-six months. "With performance rates that are adjusted everywhere in Europe, competition between buyers who reappears, some markets may see their activity increasing in the coming months", predicted this professional. The rate of return of offices "prime" in Paris from 4.75 a year ago appear to be stabiliser around 5.75 to 6.

Enlightenment on investment

"The scarcity of bank credit is the main cause of this fall in investments, said Jacques Lebhar, President of lbs - P, but the abundance of liquidity and the reconstitution of the risk premium could return investors." Indeed, many institutional have today even more than cash that they withdrew from the stock market and that the supposed non-risky financial investments (Government bonds) offer very low yields. "By aftermath of the massive debt of the States, a number of investors would be less reluctant to return to assets such as the offices", analysis Guy Marty, Director of the IEIF.

"The pressure on the market values to exert more through lower rents by currently stabilized rate corrections", prognostic studies of BNP Paribas Real Estate service. These rents down 5 to 10 in the cities, of 16 in the centre of Paris (where the "prime" rent declined 830-700 euros per square metre), confirm this diagnosis and Bode difficult months for the owners.

However, thinned appear on the market of the investment. Jacques Lebhar stresses that the low level of interest rates should also spur demand, provided that banks find joy for operators.

The school is active for the land listed who have seen their courses strongly forward since the summer. Today, many found their re-evaluated net assets value. However, it cannot infer that physical real estate professional prices will start rising.

Financial flows back, although still tentative, on the market. International investors reposition. Asia and especially the Korea and the Japan reallocate lots of lines on the real estate side in investment funds which themselves invest in listed companies.

New York and London, Paris is in their sights. Many regret not found in the capital of the assets to their investment profile.

The current situation is decidedly different from that professionals have known in the 1990s where the bankers, both investors and lenders, were the main actors.