1 lack of a true reboot of their economy

China takes more and more weight on the world energy stage. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Middle Kingdom will ensure only about 40 of oil demand growth this year. China, which represents approximately 10 of world oil consumption (against 20 for the United States), should see black gold consumption rise 7.6, reaching a volume of 9.2 million barrels per day. In comparison, the countries of the OECD will retain almost stable consumption (0.1), lack of a true reboot of their economy.

Total world demand for oil is expected to grow in an average of 1.4 per year, or 1.2 million barrels per day, up to 2015, unveiled projected yesterday by the IEA. Prices, they should slightly forward. On average, barrel would increase from 76 dollars this year to 85 dollars in 2015.

"In the field of oil and gas, we observe a remarkable dichotomy between OECD countries and emerging countries, with strong growth in China and India in the Middle East and low or stable demand in other regions, particularly in Europe", said yesterday the Director General of the International Energy Agency IEA, Nobuo Tanaka.

First automobile market in the world, before the United States, since 2009, China, she fully employed. Demand for fuels flies, supported by the increase in per capita income in urban areas and the importance of the population of the country.

Secure supply

In the future, this leverage effect will widen. China's consumption is projected to 11.6 million barrels per day on the horizon of 2015, against slightly more than 9 million this year, according to the IEA. "At this time, China could represent only about half of the growth of global demand," says David Fyfe, support teams oil to the IEA.

The rise of China will be also visible in refining. According to the International Energy Agency, the country should implement some 3.3 million b/d of additional capacity by 2015. Is more than a third of the volumes in the world. This Chinese heavy weights such as PetroChina, Sinochem and Sinopec will rely on partnerships with Russian Rosneft, the South American PDVSA or the KPC Kuwait. After 2015, ExxonMobil, Shell and Saudi Aramco should also start new facilities, thus adding some 640.000 barrels per day of additional capacity. For Chinese companies, such agreement to secure supply while ensuring a guaranteed removal for national companies like Aramco or PDVSA.

In the years to come, the question of supply will be more and more strategic for China. According to estimates of the IEA, the country's oil production should indeed remain virtually stable here 2015, 3.7 million b/d, despite a peak in 2012. Chinese offshore production will significantly increase in five years, but this increase will be offset by the decline of the largest and oldest deposits of the country such as Daqing and Shengli.

In the gas, China will also become a leading player. In recent years, the country has increased its consumption of 10 billion cubic metres per year. In 2009, it was used more gas than the Italy. Consumption should exceed that of the Germany and Britain this year. Or perhaps that of the Japan. If this scenario is confirmed, China consume then more gas than any country of the OECD, with the exception of the United States.

Worldwide, this rise will pose more problems to analysts because it will make their less and less reliable estimates. The Chinese data on oil stocks or refining capacity lacking in transparency and growth figures also raise many questions. In this context, it will become increasingly difficult for the industrial sector build strict scenarios. What encourage caution in the years to come.